Play Off Positions - Sir's Opinion

We have quite a fight on our hands. A top six as congested as the M25 at rush hour, and only one team guaranteed to play in the play offs. That team is our champions, Northampton Saints, and they will most likely be the first guaranteed home side for the play offs. First place is yet to be assured, but top two will do. Two points are needed from the remaining two fixtures and with London Welsh this weekend's visitors, you wouldn't expect anything else.

From the pinnacle, we look down the length of the Premiership. Though only half way. For the first time in years, we could have a set of play offs featuring Wasps and, more interestingly, no Leicester. How times have changed! As things stand, Northampton and Bath will host Leicester and Saracens, but we have two rounds left, and Wasps and Exeter aren't far away at all. Theoretically, this time on Sunday, we will be saying "So! Booked your tickets for Northampton vs Wasps or Bath v Exeter?" Why am I so certain Northampton and Bath will be the home sides? Well, I've explained the Saints path. They could afford to rotate the squad and let players rest for the run in against Leicester next week, and if they lost against Welsh, people would explode. Meanwhile, Bath have Harlequins this week, the team which eliminated Bath from the play offs last year, and next week, Gloucester. A relatively comfortable run in should see Bath come close to topping the table at seasons end. 

Sale and Harlequins can make the top six, but only if an extraordinary turn of events utterly decimates Wasps and Exeter. Quins will want to say good bye to two of their favourite sons, Monye and Robson, but the opposition of Bath and Newcastle will give a challenge to London's jokers. Sale, meanwhile, have Newcastle and Exeter in their last two weeks, and the common game for both teams is a likely win. Sadly, the teams currently in the top six will shut the door on the hopes of those looking to enter European Champions Cup contention. 

And on that note, I'm looking at the Chiefs and Wasps. Exeter will be looking to take on the LV Cup winners who beat them at the Gardens for their first play off fixture in Premiership history. I wouldn't like to bet against Exeter at Allianz Park on Sunday, if the dominance the Chiefs showed over Northampton is brought up the motorway. 

Meanwhile, on Saturday in Coventry, Wasps host a sell out Stinger against the new East Midlands rivals, Leicester. In recent times, Leicester have set themselves around certain players, such as Manu Tuilagi, who has been injured for most of the season. Austin Healy has suggested the Leicester culture is faltering as players are leaving for rivals, such as Exeter and Northampton. Against Wasps, I can't see Leicester pulling out a victory. Wasps have the huge feel good factor in the Ricoh, having lost once in their new home, whereas Leicester have had a terrible try scoring season (35, to rival London Welsh's 27!) 

Here's the thing. This weekend will be setting the scene for the knock outs. Bath, Saracens, Exeter and Wasps have relatively easy games in round 22, and it would be fair to expect four points from every game. Possibly five from Saracens against Welsh. The only rough game is Leicester vs Northampton, but with the Saints almost guaranteed top 2, Leicester will have it all to play for. Oh, bring on the ultimate kick off next weekend, tense to the last. But for what it's worth, here is my top four.

1st Northampton 

2nd Bath

3rd Exeter 

4th Wasps

We shall see, won't we?