And so the light of day dawns on a new competition. At 2pm (BST) on Thursday, the fixtures for the European Champions and European Challenge cups will be announced. Earlier today (Tuesday), Twickenham was announced as the venue for the finals. There was talk early on of the finals of this inaugural tournament being held in Italy, long overdue, but actually I'd struggle to think of many who would object to going to London for finals day. Well, alright, I imagine that the other five unions might be slightly miffed, but I suspect the overwhelming sense of using the home of rugby to finish the tournament may have weighed in heavily. Particularly with the overwhelming force of the English clubs in the formation of this tournament, and the imminent World Cup. I look forward to heading to Twickenham at the beginning of May, but before we get there, we have six rounds of knock out rugby to come. The best way to look at this is pool by pool, so here we go!
European Rugby Challenge Cup
Pool 1
Cardiff Blues
London Irish
Genoble
Rugby Europe 1
A new feature of the European Challenge Cup is the introduction of teams who qualify from a third tier competition, supposedly played during September. These two teams will take their place in pools 1 and 3, and may hail from Italy, Romania, Georgia, Spain or Belgium. In their debut season, I don't suspect the new additions to win through their pool stages, but not knowing anything about them yet, it's unfair to rule them out completely. Remember when Saracens had the shock in Connacht last year? Stranger things have happened, and we may be pleasantly surprised. In the past, the five winners of each pool qualified, and the 9th, 10th and 11th placed Heineken cup teams dropped down for the knock out stages. This year, with such and emphasis on meritocracy, I hope that we will see a change in what is familiar. All will be revealed on Thursday, but I hope that we will see the top 8 from this competition going through to knock out stages. If that is the case, I will say that Pool 1 will have a duel qualification of the Blues and the Exiles. If we are sticking to the old ways, then I would say London Irish will just be edged out by the Blues, the difference being the artificial pitch at the Arms Park, giving consistency for their home games, even if the traditional Welsh weather kicks in.
Pool 2
Exeter Chiefs
Bayonne
Connacht
La Rochelle
This is an unfortunately straightforward pool. Exeter, by a long way, are the favourites to push through. One of the strongest clubs to have been placed in this competition, and I can't see the Sandy Park faithful letting their boys down. The LV cup winners will back themselves all the way, with the expected resistance from Bayonne and Connacht. The later two have both had Heineken cup experience in recent years, but Exeter have really come along in recent years. Bayonne and Connacht will fight each other all the way to get second place, but I can only a single qualifier from this pool. At a push, I'd say that Connacht would just edge out on the Bayonne boys, but it would only be by a bonus point here or there.
Pool 3
Stade Français
Newcastle Falcons
Newport Qwent Dragons
Rugby Europe 2
This is the toughest pool to predict. Stade Français fought with Wasps in the play off spot at the end of last season, only to have the home leg leading to their ultimate demise. Still, 7th place in the Top 14 is no laughing matter. Newcastle will have their new home pitch and the experience of the newly arrived Tuilagi brothers to build their fortress. Newport will be out to prove themselves as actual contenders this year, and will fight all the way. Our second unnamed European team will also want to prove themselves worthy of contention, but I would still wager that this is another pool of duel qualification. Stade will lead the way, with Newcastle close behind them, I suspect each winning the home leg against the other. Newport will fight hard, but I fear in vain.
Pool 4
London Welsh
Edinburgh
Bordeaux
Lyon
This is a tricky one, since I know very little about each of these squads and how well they contest. London Welsh is a mystery for everyone, with twenty five, (yes, twenty five), new players in position to contest for shirts. Edinburgh will be looking to restore some reputation and pride after a poor few years, but will ultimately have their Heineken Cup experience to fall back on. Bordeaux and Lyon both had relatively poor seasons last year, and will be desperate to gain some ground on their counterparts in the Top 14. French clubs are always a mystery, and the old cliché of not knowing which team will show up is unfortunately based on fact. With everything in consideration, I would say our final duel qualification pool will finish with Edinburgh and London Welsh on top, with the Exiles marginally ahead.
Pool 5
Zebre
Gloucester
Brive
Oyonnax
Finally, Pool 5. Based on recent history, Zebre should be the forerunners for this pool, what with their Heineken Cup experience and their desire to not seem as the last men standing. However, the Cherry and Whites will absolutely dominate here. Like Bath did last season, Gloucester will forge ahead and thrive in this new competition, perhaps using it as a launch pad for confidence when their Premiership form dips slightly, or if they hit a bad streak. They will need the confidence for their new coaching staff and players to truly challenge for a place in Europe's top table next year.
European Rugby Champions Cup
Pool 1
Clermont
Saracens
Munster
Sale
So our first pool is the traditional "Pool of Death." Unusually, we appear to have three "Pools of Death" but that's the meritocracy coming into effect. Pool 1 hosts the beaten finalists from the Premiership and Top 14, Saracens and Clermont, who will square up in a mouthwatering clash as they did in May in the semi finals. Hopefully for Clermont, they will avoid the defeat they had last season, and push Saracens further. Munster will be looking to reassert Irish dominance in Europe, and they will want to set a big red stamp on the contest, whilst avoiding the big red stamp of Saracens. This pool will be the toughest for anyone, and I feel sorry for Sale. Newly back in the top table, and they've been drawn into this pool. Don't get me wrong, on their day, Sale will tangle with the best of them, and they may even win one or two matches, but I can't help but feel Saracens and Clermont will be fighting tooth and nail for dominance in this group, Munster not far behind them. Our double qualifiers probably wont come from this pool, and I would just edge Saracens to take the top seat.
Pool 2
Harlequins
Leinster
Castres
Wasps
"Pool of Death" number 2, though this one is not quite as vicious as the previous one. Leinster stand out as the clear forerunners, having won the Pro 12 last season. However, with Harlequins keen to take a stand as a true contender for silverware again, I would see them push the Boys in Blue all the way. Wasps and Castres are by no way the pushovers we might believe. The former champions of their respective leagues have pushed their way back into contention, Wasps having had further to climb. Castres will fight at home, as they always do, but their longest flaw has always been their away form. I certainly see Leinster qualifying as a top seed, with Harlequins perhaps being the second qualifier.
Pool 3
Ulster
Toulon
Leicester
Scarlets
Our third and final "Pool of Death." Fallen champions Leicester, double trophy winners Toulon and Irish giants with a new home, with the Scarlets thrown in for good measure. The Tigers will be sore after being kept out of the Twickenham fun last year, and they always bite back harder. Toulon will be without their talisman of Jonny Wilkinson on the field, but they wont let their legacy fall this year. They will definitely qualify as a top team, barring some mass outbreak of plague in Toulon in mid October. That just leaves Ulster and Leicester to fight it out for a second place qualifier. New stadium vs old fashioned Tigers determination. I see Cockerill's men to push on the knockout stages, but only by a slim margin.
Pool 4
Bath
Glasgow
Montpellier
Toulouse
Though not a "Pool of Death," certainly a tough one to call. Glasgow are the beaten Pro 12 finalists, and baying for blood again to prove to the new Scotland coach that they are worth it. Bath lost their way at the back end of the last season, but I can't imagine Mike Ford's men will allow the same thing to happen again. Toulouse will be looking for an opportunity to become a new force majeure in Europe, and their recruitment of experienced men, like Toby Flood, will certainly help them on their way. As for Montpellier, what their preseason loss to London Irish might lead us to believe is there is a team that may struggle this year, but never rule out a French side looking for pride. I tip Glasgow to press out of the pool stages, with Toulouse or Bath coming second behind them, narrowly cutting in to top 8 qualification.
Pool 5
Ospreys
Northampton
Racing Metro
Treviso
Finally, we come to perhaps the easiest of the pools to predict. A first glance would say the Premiership champions will rise happily into the top 8, and probably with the largest points difference what would see them as one of the top seeds with a home quarter final. Still, it would be remiss to not remember that the Ospreys and Racing Metro have a host of Welsh and Lions stars between them, more than willing to take the scalp of a Premiership giant. But last year, Northampton showed that Lions pedigree is no deterrent for them. Even with Alex Corbisiero and Dylan Hartley out injured, Alex Waller and Mikey Haywood led the pack to dominate the Ospreys scrum. Treviso are by far and away the underdogs here, but let's not forget that the Italians have packed a few surprises in their suitcases in the last five years. The Ospreys and Racing will inevitably get close to contest for second place, and I imagine, like Bath and Toulouse, they will narrowly miss out.
So in summary, if we are to take the winners and runners up of the pool stages, our knockout weekends will be contested by:
Cardiff Blues, London Irish, Exeter Chiefs, Stade Français, Newcastle, Edinburgh, London Welsh and Gloucester in the Challenge Cup.
Saracens, Leinster, Harlequins, Toulon, Leicester, Glasgow, Bath/Toulouse and Northampton for the Champions Cup.
I cannot wait for the season to get underway, and as is the case when it comes to the European contest, to quote Game of Thrones, "Winter is coming." Game on.
No comments:
Post a Comment