Seven's and a Pre-season view Part 3

Third and final part of my preseason view of what's to come in the Aviva Premiership. Then I promise to stop until the preseason matches kick off. Or I have some news to share, one of the two, whichever comes first!
Anyway, onwards with our descent of the alphabetical table.
 I cannot say enough how happy I am to see London Welsh back in the Premiership. After all the politics that surrounded their promotion two years ago, to see them come back in on merit, with no fuss, is remarkable. More remarkable though, is the number of signings they have made. Twenty four. You could make a match day squad out of the players they've signed and still have a water boy left over. I must admit to a fondness for the Exiles, they've always been one of the clubs that I've wanted to do well, especially with the issues from the last time they ended up in the Premiership. There is a little sense of satisfaction from them beating Bristol after all their posturing with the signings they made, a lot of which now may be looking to go on loan to the Premiership or Welsh clubs.
The most recognisable names from the Welsh signing sheet are the hugely experienced Olly Barkley, Dean Schofield, Koree Britton and Tim Molenaar. Now, I personally don't understand why Harlequins let Molenaar go, and I've only seen Britton play a couple of times, most recently on loan to Northampton, but these three players will certainly help the cause. Oh, one name I forgot. Piri Weepu. All Black legend, and one of the all time greats. This name in the Premiership made everyone go "Right, when's the Welsh game?" for a chance to see him play. There are a few contesting for the number one scrum half title, and Weepu is up there. To watch him play on our humble pitches will be an honour. Captain Tom May is a great leader for London Welsh, a man who's been around a long time, and I have no doubt they will survive this round in the Premiership with him leading the squad forward.

 The Falcons, or Penguins as they have once been named by a certain BT pundit, will be running out in front of their home crowd on a shiny new pitch. The powers that be in Newcastle have completely torn up the Kingston Park turf and replaced it with a 3G pitch. With the faster and consistent pitch, the Falcons will be creating a storm this season. Not that the Newcastle weather wont be contributing in some small part to the storm, which many are calling the primary reason for changing the turf to plastic.
Their apparent change in tactics stems from a need to score tries. Last year, they avoided the drop narrowly,  but now they want to set the record straight. Kingston Park is to become a fortress and sending the score keeper into over time with his five and seven times tables. Scrummages have been sured up with the acquisition of Rob Hawkins from Leicester and USA prop Eric Fry from London Scottish, but that's the beginning of it. Two former Tigers are returning to the premiership after a short interval away. Alesana and Anitelea Tuilangi are returning to terrify the defence coaches up and down the land. With the new front rows helping to secure possession, wind these two up and watch them go.Leicester have taken some of Newcastles best players over the years, so it's nice to see the swing go the other way, at least for a couple of years. The number of Scottish players in Newcastle will surely help the beneficial nature those in the North hold, using the Falcons as a great place for the Scots to develop as players to help them press for the World Cup. Time will tell how much the Scots, and former Tigers, combined with the new pitch, will help, but the Falcons need to be successful away from home as well as on their own turf.

 Now this may seem a gratuitous section. In terms of a transfer market, the Saints have seen more players go out than have come in from outside the Academy structure. Joel Hodgson is the single new face, travelling down from the North to join the champions. The Saints have finally done what was expected of them, and taken the crown for themselves. After the epic semi final against Leicester, then the 100 minute slog against Saracens at Twickenham, even the toughest of critics cannot deny the Saints. The club record stretch of wins in the midseason certainly helped their cause, but the subsequent low streak meant they ran the risk losing home field advantage in the semi's. They cannot afford to have a run like that again, and for what it's worth, I suspect that the major problem was the return of the internationals.
Jim Mallinder reintegrated his England players too quickly. The away game to Sale came a week after the Italy game, and reintroducing Dylan Hartley, Tom Wood, Courtney Lawes, Luther Burrell and Lee Dickson, so suddenly after the youth of the Saints led by Phil Dowson were storming on three fronts. Next season should hopefully see Alex Corbisiero back for club and country, and now a very settled background to the club should help every player reach their potential. Critics said George North struggled this season, but he still made an impact. The poor man has barely been able to out his feet up since the summer of 2012, so once he returns, fully rested, expect to see the Lion roar again. Something I think Mallinder needs to do next year is rotate his squad more, particularly with the talent he has in his squad. Alex Waller was a wonderful deputy to Soane Tonga'uhia, and now this year has demonstrated how much of an asset he is to Northampton and England as the winning try scorer of the final. He deserves to get more game time wearing 1 on his back. Likewise, younger brother Ethan deserves some more match time once his fingers have repaired, and certainly he will dominate in the LV cup. The second and back row talent in Northampton is huge, and everyone needs a chance to shine, if only to rest the big names. Ben Nutley, Teimana Harrison, Cam Dolan and James Craig are willing to fight for their shirts past Lawes, Samu Manoa, Sam Dickinson, Wood and Dowson, and I believe they should get their chance. Injuries for Northampton have been unkind this year. Corbisiero, Hartley, Christian Day, Ben Foden, Dom Waldouck, Tom Stephenson. All spent long times on the bench, itching to get back on the field. We can only hope that these players will remain fully fit, as we do for all players in the Premiership, so the competition can remain the fiercest in the world. All in all, I'm backing the Saints to push the top two all the way this year, so they can stay England's best.

 Sale came on leaps and bounds in the last year, going from fighting to stay in the Premiership to sixth place and back into the top tiers of Europe. The main reason of success? Many are attributing the rise to one Danny Cipriani. And certainly, he has done a significant job to get where he needed to be to earn the recall to the England setup over the summer. But you cannot deny the strength needed for Sale to push back into the Premiership elite. Mark Cueto got himself into the history books as the record try scorer, and so many of the forwards kept the core of the squad going forward. However, Sale really need to dig deep this year to keep their place. Some of their star players have left for other clubs. Dwayne Peel, Henry Thomas, James Gaskell, Tob Miller. They will be making their wages at Sale's rivals,  but some of their replacements should really bolster the squad. Magnus Lund returns to the club that started him off, and he will be welcomed back warmly by the Salford faithful. Luke McLean and Alberto De Marchi are on their way from Treviso, ready to challenge themselves fully in the Premiership against some of the best in the world. Finally, the old traveller, Nathan Hines, is making his way to finally compete in the Premiership. The old Lions tourist and Scotland legend is attempting just about the only league he hasn't competed in, at the youthful age of 38.
Joining him from the old Scotland guard is the 2005 Lion Chris Cusiter. From what I remember of him in his international days (and this was a few years back) he is a stable pair of hands to partner up with Cipriani. With the backs not changing much, the outside pace should stay the same, but it requires the forwards to do their job to maintain possession. I'm unsure about how Sale will do this year. I hope they contest well and don't slip backwards from the last season, but my concern for Sale is the pressure from the teams that missed out last year, such as Exeter and Wasps. The movement of players from Sale to Wasps may concern Steve Diamond, but we'll have to wait and see.

 Oh the Saracens. Last years beaten finalists, and league leaders for the majority of the season. There is much that opposition spectators don't like about Saracens. The fez's, the odd finger waggle when they take a penalty, the plastic pitch, the seemingly endless squad list. But there's something you cannot argue with, and it is the results they produce. The upside to the plastic pitch is that it changed Saracens game plan. Rewind a couple of years, and they were a team who won their matches with penalties alone. Their defence was, and is, exceptionally good, but their attacking options were often met with a solid defence or a dropped ball, and so the Wolfpack had to bite for a penalty. I don't mean that literally, of course, just the metaphor fits.
Recently, Saracens have pushed themselves up the try scoring tables, coming second to only Northampton this year, and reaching the finals of both the Premiership and the Heiniken Cup, only to be beaten down by two powerhouses of the rugby world right now. I felt bad for Steve Borthwick as he left Twickenham for his retirement, he came so close, and sadly fell at the last hurdle. I respect Saracens as much as can be expected for a rival team. But there's still too for improvement by their standards, and this is where their new signings come in. Jim Hamilton has come to fill the boots of Borthwick, and Juan Figallo follows from Montpellier to take the place of Matt Stevens, with Australian Kieran Longbottom coming to contest for the number 3 shirt. The backs are mostly unchanged, with the tried and tested halfback combinations staying put at Allianz park. The pack is highly similar to last year, with only the aforementioned players switching in. I'm expecting another stellar season from the Fez heads, and if they perform the same level of rugby magic they did last year, we'll see them in the play offs yet again.


Last but not least, Wasps. The eagle eyed amongst you may have noticed that London Wasps is at the end of an alphabetical list. Fortunately for me, I'm not an English teacher, nor are London Wasps so called any more. They have reverted back to simply Wasps. Unfortunately, whilst the internet is a great way to find pictures, none of the recent images have had "London" removed from the High Wycombe based club, so for now, we make do.
Our European play off winners have taken their place amongst the elite once again, and Dai Young is sure to want his men to avoid being in the same position this year. This year, he will want his Wasps side secure in the top six by by the end of April, in order to avoid the four team play off  that will start from next season. I've already spoken about some of the acquisitions Wasps have made from other clubs, mostly forwards orientated to help the squad compete against teams like Northampton and Leicester. Mind you, with the backs talent Wasps have at their disposal, why invest there?Christian Wade may have spent the majority of the season injured, but he, along with Tom Varndell,  Chris Bell, and Elliot Daly make up a speedster bunch of backs who can, and often do, outpace the majority of the premiership. As I've said with a lot of the teams, the backs aren't always enough, and they need forwards to dominate, to turn over possession and keep their own ball. James Haskell is key to the back row domination that Wasps enjoyed over Stade Francais in the play off, along with No 8 Nathan Hughes showing astonishing form towards the end of the season, as the two young men contest to gain a place in Stuart Lancaster's squad. Joining them in the pack, James Gaskell, Bradley Davies, Ed Shervington and Lorenzo Cittadini head up the new Wasps, with Alapati Leiua, Rob Miller and Ruaridh Jackson coming in as back replacements, the later two presumably being long term replacements for Andy Goode when he finally hangs up his boots. The success of the Stinger means that Wasps will remain heavy fan favourites for every English supporter out there, and I don't doubt we will see them in the top 6 this year.

So having thought about it, here are my predictions for the year. I won't go so far as to say individual league positions, aside from European play offs and relegation, but this is what I think the table will look like in May.


TOP FOUR (PLAY OFFS)
Northampton, Saracens, Leicester, Bath.

5th and 6th (European Champions Cup)
Harlequins, Wasps

7th (European Play off place)
Exeter

8th, 9th, 10th, 11th
Sale, Gloucester, Newcastle, London Welsh.

12th (Relegation)
London Irish

I think it would be hard to argue the top three being the usual suspects, and I expect fourth place to come down to the last weekend again. European positions are going to be throughly contested, but Harlequins and Wasps will just manage to win through, with Exeter pushing hard for a chance at the top table again. Beyond that, it comes down to experience and a redistribution of players to get used to. Gloucester have a whole new coaching staff to get used to, and a host of new players which may cost them early on. Sale have lost some key men, but will ultimately fight hard to stear clear of the relegation battle. That leaves three to fight down at the bottom. Of course, the new pitch and experienced men will help their cause, so that leaves two. The wildly reshuffled and newly promoted London Welsh, and the newly funded but unlucky London Irish.
The battle of relegation will come down to these two, and I personally believe that it will be the Welsh who push their noses out in front, a just reward for how their promotion last time was handled. All this is to say, strap yourselves in, for t'is the season, and it's going to be one hell of a ride.